Typhoon Closures and the Half-Life of a Berth Forecast | Dogwood Hub Field Notes

Typhoon season turns berth forecasting from measurement into maintenance work. A queue chart built on Tuesday may be worthless by Thursday if Busan and Gwangyang both issue closure notices.

What invalidates a prior estimate

Full terminal closure is obvious. Partial closures — one berth group shut, others operating — are harder. Vessels rerouted to anchorages accumulate in numbers that published queue lists do not capture until stevedores return.

Our re-forecast protocol

Once terminals publish reopening times, we wait for the first queue list rather than extrapolating from pre-storm positions. The first list after reopening often undercounts because vessels still at anchor have not received berth assignments.

We mark reopened forecasts with a confidence rating: low for the first 48 hours, medium after two queue publications, high only when crane roster notices stabilise.

Client communication during storms

If you hold a port delay report delivered before a closure, treat the release window section as suspended — not wrong, but paused. We re-issue an addendum at no charge when the original report was delivered within seven days of the closure announcement.

Planning takeaway

Build typhoon weeks into customer promises on reefer and perishable lanes. The meteorology is uncertain; the berth queue after reopening is equally volatile for the first three days.